Posted on May 13, 2026
By Mohamed Dabo
US retail import recovery lags behind 2025 levels, with cargo volumes expected to remain under last year’s comparable figures despite a short-term uplift in May and June, according to the latest outlook from the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker.
The data points to a continued slowdown in the pace of US retail imports as global supply chains stabilise but demand growth remains uneven.
While seasonal factors typically support mid-year volumes, the broader trend suggests that the recovery in inbound cargo is failing to regain the levels seen in 2025.
Imports outlook
Forecasts for US retail imports indicate a year-on-year decline in momentum, even as short-term shipping activity improves. The National Retail Federation (NRF) notes that cargo volumes are likely to stay below 2025 levels across the remainder of the period covered by its outlook.
The organisation’s Global Port Tracker highlights that retailers continue to manage inventory cautiously amid uncertain demand conditions.
Import flows, which had previously shown signs of stabilisation after pandemic-era disruption, are now reflecting more subdued consumption patterns in key retail categories.
For international suppliers and logistics providers, this suggests that US demand is normalising rather than expanding. In practical terms, it points to a market where growth is more selective, with fewer sustained spikes in order volumes.
Seasonal bump
A modest increase in shipments is expected during May and June, driven by traditional seasonal restocking cycles. However, this uplift is not considered strong enough to shift the broader annual trend.
The NRF’s outlook suggests that while retailers are still bringing forward inventory ahead of peak trading periods, the scale of replenishment is lower than in previous years. This reflects ongoing efforts to align stock levels more closely with actual consumer demand rather than maintaining higher safety buffers.
In earlier supply chain cycles, similar seasonal peaks often masked underlying weakness in demand. Current patterns indicate that even these seasonal effects are becoming less pronounced.
Retail impact
For US retailers, softer import volumes have implications for inventory planning, pricing strategies and supply chain contracts. Lower inbound cargo levels can ease short-term logistics pressure but may also signal weaker sales expectations across certain categories.
Global exporters serving the US market are likely to see more variability in order timing rather than sustained volume growth. This shift is reinforcing a more flexible procurement approach, with retailers prioritising responsiveness over scale commitments.
The continued gap between current import activity and 2025 levels also highlights the uneven nature of the post-disruption recovery in global trade.
While supply chains have largely normalised operationally, demand-side conditions remain less predictable, particularly in discretionary retail segments.
Overall, the outlook suggests that US retail imports are stabilising at a lower baseline rather than entering a renewed growth phase, with implications across shipping, warehousing and international sourcing networks.
