Posted on October 28, 2026
Jens Gjerrild, Robert Hjorth, Frank Klose, Jeremy Merz, and
As we predicted in the 2025 Offshore Wind Industry Update, governments are currently ramping up efforts to compete for developer interests; not all have however succeeded in moving from stated commitment to implementing the needed changes. The result is a strong divergence of market responses. Some have acted, restoring revenue support, raising price ceilings and adjusting risk allocation, while others, on the other hand, have quietly let ambitions slide, or deprioritized offshore wind altogether.
Belief in the sector is now generally improving on the back of the implemented government changes, as can be observed through some investor interest coming back to the offshore wind industry.
Developers are generally still engaging more conservatively; knowing they can afford to wait, they are limiting capital commitments while waiting for positive signals to convert into more favorable project economics. Still, the recent Danish auction shows that some developers make bold moves in the market in order to fill up their pipelines.
A Market Splitting Into Three Tiers
The conditions for attracting developer interest have not changed: markets must provide a credible pipeline and the pre-conditions for an attractive business case.
An updated mapping of the markets along the two head-line dimensions reveals widening gaps and a market splitting into three tiers (Exhibit 1).
