Upper Missouri River basin forecast runoff remains well below normal; water conservation measures continue

“Runoff was well below normal due to dry soil conditions and well below normal precipitation across the entire Missouri River basin,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’, Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “Due to the lack of plains snowpack in 2022, below-average mountain snowpack, and dry upper Basin conditions, we expect upper Missouri River Basin runoff to be below average.”

The runoff forecast is based on soil moisture conditions, plains snowpack, mountain snowpack, and long-term precipitation and temperature outlooks.

“System storage is currently 48.4 MAF, which is 7.7 MAF below the top of the carryover multiple use zone. That zone is designed to provide service to the eight Congressionally authorized purposes, though at reduced levels, through a long-term drought,” said Remus.  “Water conservation measures, such as minimum winter releases and reduced flow support for navigation, are implemented as the amount of water in the reservoir system declines.”

Mountain and Plains Snowpack:

Mountain snowpack in the upper Basin is accumulating at below-average rates. The April 3 mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck reach was 75% of average and the mountain snowpack in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach was 71% of average. By April 1, about 95% of the total mountain snowpack has typically accumulated. Mountain snowpack normally peaks near April 15. The mountain snowpack graphics can be viewed at: http://go.usa.gov/xARQC. Currently, plains snowpack in the upper basin is essentially non-existent with only trace amounts in southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota remaining.

Navigation:

Gavins Point Dam releases were increased near mid-March to begin flow support for Missouri River navigation. As part of water conservation measures, minimum service flow support for Missouri River navigation will be provided for the first half of the 2022 season, in accordance with the guidelines in the Master Manual. Minimum-service flow targets range from 25,000 cubic feet per second at Sioux City, Iowa to 35,000 cfs at Kansas City. Flow support for the second half of the navigation season, as well as the navigation season length, will be based on the actual July 1 System storage. The current forecast indicates that minimum service flow support will be required throughout the navigation season and flow support may be shortened by as much as 3 weeks.

Spring Public Meetings:

Seven public meetings will be conducted throughout the basin April 11-13 and April 15. The purpose of these meetings is to update the region on current hydrologic conditions and the planned operation of the mainstem reservoir system during the coming months. Meeting times and locations are listed below.

Monday, April 11 – Fort Peck, Montana

• Start time: 10:30 a.m. (MDT)
• Fort Peck Interpretative Center
• Lower Yellowstone Rd.

Monday, April 11 – Bismarck, North Dakota

• Start time: 6 p.m. (CDT)
• Bismarck State College, National Energy Center of Excellence (NECE), Bldg. 15, Bavendick Stateroom
• 1200 Schafer Street

Tuesday, April 12 – Fort Pierre, South Dakota

• Start time: 10 a.m. (CDT)
• Casey Tibbs Conference Center
• 210 Verendrye Drive

Tuesday, April 12 – Sioux City, Iowa

• Start time: 4 p.m. (CDT)
• Lewis & Clark Interpretive Center, Betty Strong Encounter Center
• 900 Larsen Park Rd.

Wednesday, April 11 – Smithville, Missouri

• Start time: 11 a.m. (CDT)
• Jerry Litton Visitor Center, Smithville Dam
• 16311 DD Hwy.

Wednesday, April 11 – Nebraska City, Nebraska

• Start time: 6 p.m. (CDT)
• Steinhart Lodge
• 1888 Steinhart Park Rd

Friday, April 15 – St. Louis, Missouri

• Start time: 10:30 a.m. (CDT)
• VUE 17
• 1034 S. Brentwood Blvd, #1700

Reservoir Forecasts:

• Gavins Point Dam
  • Average releases past month – 16,000 cfs
  • Current release rate – 22,500 cfs
  • Forecast release rate – 23,500 cfs
  • End-of-March reservoir level – 1206.5 feet
  • Forecast end-of-April reservoir level – 1206.0 feet
  • Notes: The Gavins Point release will be adjusted to provide minimum-service navigation flow support on the lower Missouri River.
• Fort Randall Dam
  • Average releases past month – 13,800 cfs
  • End-of-March reservoir level – 1353.2 feet (up 3.5 feet from February)
  • Forecast end-of-April reservoir level – 1355.2 feet
  • Notes: Releases will be adjusted as necessary to maintain the desired reservoir elevation at Gavins Point and to back up Gavins Point releases.
• Big Bend Dam
  • Average releases past month – 18,500 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 22,000 cfs
  • Forecast reservoir level – 1420.7 feet
• Oahe Dam
  • Average releases past month – 17,900 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 22,600 cfs
  • End-of-March reservoir level – 1596.7 feet (down 0.4 foot from February)
  • Forecast end-of-April reservoir level – 1595.7 feet
• Garrison Dam
  • Average releases past month – 14,500 cfs
  • Current release rate – 14,500 cfs
  • Forecast release rate – 14,500 cfs
  • End-of-March reservoir level – 1827.9 feet
  • Forecast end-of-April reservoir level – 1827.9 feet
  • Notes – Releases will be maintained at 14,500 cfs in April.
• Fort Peck Dam
  • Average releases past month – 5,000 cfs
  • Current release rate – 4,500 cfs
  • Forecast average release rate – 6,000 cfs
  • End-of-March reservoir level – 2222.9 feet
  • Forecast end-of-April reservoir level – 2222.5 feet
  • Notes: Releases will be raised to 6,000 cfs in early April.

The forecast reservoir releases and elevations discussed above are not definitive. Additional precipitation, lack of precipitation or other circumstances could cause adjustments to the reservoir release rates.

Hydropower:

The six mainstem power plants generated 527 million kWh of electricity in March. Typical energy generation for March is 640 million kWh. The power plants are expected to generate 7.2 billion kWh this year, compared to the long-term average of 9.5 billion kWh.

To view the detailed three-week release forecast for the mainstem dams, go to https://go.usa.gov/xARQB.

The Missouri Basin Web App provides links to these reports and others that are updated more frequently. http://go.usa.gov/xE6fC.