Posted on November 7, 2025
US ports are caught in a dramatic reversal: after stellar July-August performance that saw the Port of Los Angeles shatter 117 years of records, September brought reality crashing back as containerised inbound volumes fell 5.8% YoY, according to S&P data, and are projected to close the year on a lower note.
This doesn’t come as a surprise, rather an anticipated downturn in demand due to the ongoing tariff war. Overall, the busy summer was a rollercoaster of pulling-forward inbound goods, as shippers scrambled to front-load during the brief pause on reciprocal tariffs, only for the brakes to slam this September.
The whiplash was particularly severe at the Port of LA, where after a record breaking July of 1.02 M TEU, the highest monthly volume in port history, volumes crashed 7.5% YoY in September. Imports fell 7.6%, while exports remained flat. New tariffs have curbed imports without yet giving exports a meaningful lift.
Port Volumes
Long Beach posted a 6.8% volume increase in volumes YoY through the first nine months of 2025, with Q3 marking its second highest quarter ever. Port officials attributed activity to early Peak Season demand and ongoing deliveries from orders placed during the recent tariff pause.
Despite the September dip, LA’s Q3 still notched 2.9 million TEU, a quarterly record, with July-August’s near-2 million TEUs, posting “the best two-month stretch for any port in the Western Hemisphere”, says Ports Executive Director Gene Seroka.
New York/New Jersey held its position as America’s second-busiest port, though September volumes fell 5%. Year-to-date figures told a different story: up 3.1%, fueled by shippers front-loading holiday cargo earlier in 2025 ahead of tariff deadlines.
North American ports saw a 9% QoQ throughput increase at major US ports. And although several ports recorded declines, POLA and POLB alone account for around 40% of traffic.
Port Market Shares Shift
The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handled the most cargo in H1 2025, accounting for 38.7% of total TEUs. However, this share has fallen from 39.6% in 2024, partly due to reduced Chinese imports. Meanwhile, the Ports of New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Houston gained market share, thanks to their more diverse base of trade partner countries. By coast, the East and Gulf coasts handled 51.7% of TEU volumes in 2025, up from 50.4% in 2024, as the decline in Chinese imports has largely affected Southern California ports.The trajectory is clear: the center of gravity is shifting eastward.
As Chinese imports decline, West Coast ports that built their empires on trans-Pacific trade are vulnerable. East Coast gateways with stronger ties to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America are picking up the pieces.
Overall, import patterns are changing as a result of the tariffs, although the full extent of that remains to be seen. In June, following the announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, imports from China rose slightly (0.4%), while imports from other countries climbed: Indonesia (+17%), Thailand (+8.6%) and Vietnam (+7.7%) as shippers shifted sourcing to Southeast Asia.
Outlook: Tariff Truce Extended
With peak season cargo already delivered, Q4 looks soft. A fresh US-China agreement reached October 30th offers modest relief: from November 10, China will suspend its additional 24% tariffs on certain US goods (maintaining a 10% duty). But uncertainty lingers. Potential tariff escalation could accelerate the decline.
Inflationary pressures and economic volatility threaten to dampen consumer spending heading into year-end, and port officials are bracing for a quieter close to 2025 than the record-breaking summer suggested.
