Posted on July 1, 2026
North American supply chains remain relatively fluid overall, but conditions are becoming more dynamic across key ocean, gateway, and inland corridors. An early, compressed peak shipping season, frontloaded imports, tariff and fuel uncertainty, tightening inland capacity, and regulatory changes are placing greater emphasis on planning discipline, routing flexibility, and execution reliability. Read more in this month’s North American Market Update from Maersk.
The Situation
North American supply chains are entering mid-2026 with overall fluidity, but also with sharper pressure across specific ocean, gateway, and inland corridors.
- Early, compressed peak season: June import volumes are forecast to hit 2.25 million TEUs, a 14.3% increase year-over-year. This surge represents an early peak season likely driven by retailers frontloading merchandise to protect fall inventory against potential tariff changes, fuel volatility, and peak season surcharges. This shift likely also reflects uncertainty ahead of the upcoming expiration of Section 122 tariffs on July 24, 2026.
- Geopolitical ripple effects: Recent U.S.–Iran diplomatic developments, including a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding and a 60-day negotiations window, have temporarily eased tensions. The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty. The safety of our seafarers, vessels, and cargo remains Maersk’s highest priority. While two Maersk vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz recently, any decision to transit will continue to be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners. For the latest information, please monitor our Stay Ahead information hub.
- Macro environment and consumer pressure: Driven largely by energy price volatility, U.S. headline inflation was reported at 4.2% in May, higher energy prices and some broader pass-through into consumer goods. This baseline has led to softer consumer confidence. While domestic demand for goods continues to expand, it is doing so at a more measured pace than last year, reinforcing a more cautious, value-driven retail environment.
For customers in North America, these developments matter because energy costs continue to influence transportation expenses, inflation, and broader demand conditions.
Ocean & Gateway Update
The ocean market is experiencing selective capacity compression across key trade lanes, with early peak season frontloading impacting global asset availability.
- Transpacific update: Demand remains elevated as customers frontload seasonal inventory and respond to tariff and fuel-related uncertainty, pushing Transpacific spot rates to their highest level this year. Space is tight across Asia–North America services. Shippers are advised to plan bookings early, review routing options, and remain flexible on gateway choices where possible.
Maersk has introduced seasonal Transpacific capacity through the TPX service to support peak-season demand. The service is expected to operate through the end of September, subject to demand. Customers moving cargo from relevant origins should review available routing options with their Maersk representative.
