Posted on July 16, 2025
According to Windward, the second quarter of 2025 saw maritime disruptions intensify amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Vessel sanctions remained notably high, marking the second-highest quarter since 2022, with expanded targeting of sectors such as flag registries and financial services.
Furthermore, GPS jamming created widespread operational headaches, affecting over 13,000 vessels globally, particularly during the Iran conflict, which disrupted AIS signals and forced significant cargo rerouting.
This turbulence notably impacted crude oil exports and contributed to mounting congestion at strategic ports like Singapore and Busan.
Key areas of the report include:
- Vessel & company sanctions
- GPS jamming
- New false flag registries
- Maritime critical infrastructure protection
- Shadow & grey fleets
- Risk status & cleared risk
Maritime trends from the Iran conflict
GPS jamming
The Iran–Israel conflict triggered the emergence of a new and highly disruptive GPS jamming hub in the Arabian Gulf. Although the conflict was brief, its impact on maritime safety and security in the region was significant and far-reaching.
Between June 13–24, more than 12,000 GPS jamming incidents were recorded, impacting over 3,000 vessels worldwide. This period saw a 153% spike in the daily number of jamming-affected vessels compared to the Q2 2025 monthly average.
AIS jamming in Q2 2025 triggered false signals near several sensitive terminals, including Asaluyeh, Bandar Abbas, and Dubai — raising operational and security concerns in these high-traffic areas.
On June 22, GPS jamming activity peaked, with over 1,700 vessels affected in a single day.
Unlike jamming disruptions in low-risk regions, the extensive interference near a high-risk regime like Iran had added consequences. It led to false port call signals in Iranian waters, complicating vessel screening processes and undermining due diligence efforts for stakeholders.
Furthermore, 97% of jamming incidents in the Arabian Gulf “threw” vessels onto land, leading to a surge in false port calls in Iran and creating added challenges for compliance and due diligence. Rapid identification and removal of these false events was critical during the conflict, helping maintain operational resiliency and continuity across affected regions.
Divergence of maritime traffic
During the conflict period (June 13–24), reported port calls in Pakistan rose by 21% compared to the days preceding the conflict — likely reflecting vessel rerouting and shifting regional activity patterns.
New false flag registries
Q2 2025 saw a sharp and staggering rise in the number of vessels registered under newly emerging false flag registries, marking a significant escalation compared to Q1.
- Vessel registrations under false flags in the Netherlands Caribbean, covering Curaçao, St. Maarten, and Saint Barthélemy rose by 98%
- Guyana saw a 105% increase in false flag vessel registrations
- Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) recorded a 260% surge in false flag vessel registrations
Q2 2025 also saw the emergence of entirely new flag registries previously non-existent or inactive until now:
- Benin
- Malawi
- Aruba
Shadow and grey fleets
In Q2 2025, Saudi Arabia emerged as a new hotspot for shadow fleet activity. Port calls by grey fleet vessels rose by 152% compared to Q1.
Furthermore, the Comoros flag continued its ascent in Q2 2025, emerging as one of the top three flags used by the grey fleet. In Q2 2025, the number of shadow fleet vessels operating under the Comoros flag surged by 103%.
Conversely, the Panama flag saw a decline in use among shadow vessels, with a 16% drop in Q2 2025 compared to the previous quarter. This decline may reflect growing regulatory scrutiny of the Panama registry by global authorities, prompting shadow fleet operators to seek less visible alternatives.
