Posted on May 28, 2025
US ports are again coming into focus as cargo orders ramp up, following the 14 May pause in 145% import tariffs on Chinese goods.
The reduction in tariffs from 145% to 30% on imports from China is expected to give rise to a wave of demand that could once again swamp US main ports and inland logistics.
Congestion in US ports is mounting, a challenge which shipping lines say they expect to increase, at least in the short term, as American tariff ping pong has seen volumes increase first to Europe and latterly to the US.
During the pandemic poor inland connections including the handling of chassis, and rail infrastructure saw freight backed up into overflowing warehouses and container storage yards.
A shortage of chassis was caused by the fact, with nowhere to be stacked, containers were being stored on trailers in whatever space was available, creating a shortage of chassis, shippers complained about a lack of communication about where containers were and when they could pick them. Costs spiralled out of control.
On a Hapag-Lloyd webinar recently JOC senior editor Peter Tirschwell said that US West Coast ports do not respond well to surges in freight.
“Nothing structural has changed on the US West Coast since the pandemic, meaning no massive infusion of investment, no greater information systems visibility that would facilitate smoother cargo flow in the event of a surge,” said Tirschwell.
Those solutions are more readily available today than in 2021 and the VP of business development at C3 Solutions Neil McEvoy, argues that the means to smooth the movement of containers has developed significantly.
“When vessels arrive outside their scheduled windows, due to weather, customs delays, or capacity limits, it disrupts the flow of containers into the broader supply chain. Suddenly, distribution centres and yards are hit with unexpected surges in volume, limited visibility, and little time to react,” said McEvoy.
AI solutions to maintain the flow of cargo are now available, with C3 one example of the emerging technology that offer smart scheduling analyses carrier trends, processing times, and historical data to optimise dock appointments. AI controlled software, which “prioritises urgent trailers, assigns shunter tasks efficiently, and suggests the best parking spots, reducing congestion and speeding up turnaround times.”
Shippers are entitled to ask why ports and inland connections have not learned the lessons from the pandemic. Instead, shippers should assume that as demand ramps up the movement of freight will again be stymied.
A return of more than 166,000 teu to the Pacific trades, following a sudden decline instigated by the imposition of US import taxes on 2 April only to withdraw almost all of them days later: except those on China which came into force on 9 April at over 100%, quickly climbed to 145%, and by 14 May had gone, in a 90-day pause, reducing those tariffs to 30%.
Some might argue that shooting stars burn for longer than US tariffs.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen believes that port infrastructure in some regions is not “mature enough” to meet demand.
“When I look at the next three, four or five years then there will be some limitations in port infrastructure in quite a few markets,” said Jansen, who went on to argue that massive ordering which has seen a large overhang in vessel capacity means carriers can add ships in times of crisis.
“It is good that there are a few ships extra available, because if you can’t get into the port and you have to wait for a week on average, then you need an extra ship to offer the same type of service,” explained Jansen.
Market analyst Xeneta said that on 11 May shippers were in a “tariff limbo”, wrote analyst Emily Stausbøll.
“The fact there is now talk of a spike in freight rates following the announcement of a temporary lowering of tariffs between the US and China demonstrates how quickly situations can come full circle and why it is so difficult for shippers to manage supply chains against such uncertainty,” she added.
Rising spot rates are an indication that shippers are taking advantage of the temporary lowering of import duties, as lines struggle to return redeployed tonnage to the Pacific to meet an expected spike in demand.
Former Trailer Bridge founder and CEO and recognised shipping expert John McCown said that the US import volumes had increased 9.6% in the first four months of this year, a marked slow down from the 15.2% growth in the same period last year.
If and when the port of call fees are introduced later this year are married with a return to import duties that are significantly higher than 30% on China the situation could again become challenging.
“China is the origin point of some 40% of inbound containers to the US. When the 145% tariffs were in place they had the effect of halting the majority of those shipments at least temporarily. My view is that if they had stayed in place, total inbound boxes to the US would decline by at least 25% from that measure alone.”
Following the reduction of China tariffs, McCown argues that the 30% tariffs, “will still have a material impact”.
However, McCown adds: “When [30% China tariffs] are combined with the 10% tariffs for other countries as well as other special tariffs including the proposed USTR ship fees, if they stay in place my analysis is that there will be a double-digit percent reduction in annual volume for all of 2025 compared to 2024.”
As challenges mount up shippers are entitled to ask why they are in the same position today as they were five years ago.
