Posted on July 22, 2024
You might have guessed the Port of Baltimore is off to the worst start this year among the nation’s leading airports, seaports and border crossings.
A container ship hit the Francis Scott Key Bridge at the port entrance in April, causing the center span to collapse and all but eliminating trade until early June.
But which other ports are off to a slow start? And why?
To provide a little context, overall U.S. trade is up 2.54% to $2.15 trillion, slightly below the record pace of 2022.
This is the other side of a column I posted two months ago. Then, I wrote about the U.S. airport, seaport and border crossing growing most rapidly in the first quarter of the year, mentioning a few other top performers along the way.
But, just as there are always leaders, there are always laggards.
For this post, I narrowed the list of ports to the top 50 to avoid any statistical anomalies from less active ports that might be misleading. The top 50 are handling 82.59% of all U.S. trade this year.
And before I dive in, a note about the Port of Baltimore.
Don’t assume it will finish the year with the highest-percentage decline, given the impressive 71% gain in imports in May, from April, despite the channel not being fully reopened. It has been a fast-growing port for years.
Previously, I had written about seaports that would be likely to benefit — at least in the short term — on the export side and the import side until the port’s channel reopened.
Let’s look at the other nine.
Does geography offer clues? What about the mode of transportation?
Three of the nine are seaports, one on the East Coast, one on the Gulf Coast and one on the West Coast — the Port of New York, the Port of New Orleans and the Port of Long Beach.
Four are airports, one on the East Coast, two in the middle of the country, and one on the West Coast (sort of) — JFK International Airport; UPS international cargo that the U.S. Census Bureau largely counts with Cleveland, Ohio rather than Louisville, Ky.; DFW International Airport; and Anchorage International Airport.
And the final two are border crossings, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, but both bordering Canada — Champlain, N.Y. and Blaine, Wash.
Pretty diverse both by geography and mode of transportation, I would say. As you will see, there aren’t too many common threads running through these ports’ stories. One thread that also most certainly runs through these ports is the changes wrought by the tariffs placed on China by former President Donald Trump and kept by current President Biden.
I will write about each, from the greatest percentage loss when compared to the same five months of 2023 to the least. I will exclude the Port of Baltimore, which saw its trade decline by 32.08%, given that I have written about its trade extensively.
For the record, that 32.08% decline is more than twice that of the next two, Champlain and New Orleans, more than three times the rate of decline for DFW, and at least more than four times the rest.
This chart focuses on just the month of May rather than year-to-date data but shows that is imports causing overall trade to drop at the Champlain, N.Y. border crossing.
Champlain, N.Y. border crossing
Imports of silver, electricity drop
Total trade through Champlain, which sits on the northeastern corner of New York state, abutting Canada, dropped 13.11% when compared to the first five months of 2023. This year, 88% of its trade is within Canada, about average.
It’s not that bad, though. The port, which ranked No. 41 through May, set a record for its total trade two of the last three years — and the first five months of 2023 suggested another record was in store. It was not to be.
Both silver, the second-ranked import, and electrical energy, ranked No. 3, fell more than 50% in value from last year.
Exports to Canada fell 4.93% but imports fell more sharply, down 12.04%. Sixty-six percent of its trade was an export for all of 2023; that has fallen to 62% this year.
For Champlain, it is the slowest start through May since 2020, during Covid-19.
Brazil, Mexico and China were the Port of New Orleans’ three most important trading partners by value, despite the decreases through May.
Port of New Orleans
Imports from China, Mexico, U.K. slip
Trade at the Port of New Orleans is off 12.44% through May, its slowest start since 2021 and a 25.56% decline from the record pace of 2022.
Ranked No. 24 among the nation’s airports, seaports and border crossings by the value of its trade, it saw exports decline 11.49% from last year, with imports off 13.75%.
Big drops were registered in imports from No. 1 trade partner China, down 24.42%; No. 2 Mexico, down 27.43%; and No. 3 United Kingdom, down 37.06%.
The category of cell phones and related equipment accounted for 34% of the value of all DFW imports in 2023. Thus far in 2024, that percentage is down to 20%.
DFW International Airport
Cell phone imports dip 56%
DFW’s trade has boomed the last three years, topping $60 billion each year for the only three times in history.
It might not make it this year. Through May, its trade is down 8.74%, with exports up 3.54% and imports off 17.46%. It ranked No. 25 among the nation’s airports, seaports and border crossings through May.
Imports of cell phones and related equipment accounted for 34% of the value of all DFW imports in 2023. So far this year, that percentage is down to 20%, with the value off 55.53%. At $2.48 billion, the category remains the most value import.
The Port of Long Beach’s showed decreases in three of its most important exports by value through May — passenger vehicles, cotton and frozen beef.
Port of Long Beach
Data shows drop in car, cotton, beef exports
The U.S. Census Bureau data shows that passenger vehicle exports fell 16.74% through the first five months, while exports of cotton and frozen beef fell 19.19% and 13.62%, respectively. These were the first, second and fourth most valuable exports from the Southern California seaport that is largely reliant on imports.
The port’s trade is down 7.42% from the first five months of last year, according to the data, which Census gets from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. It’s down an even steeper 12.87% from two years ago.
When writing about the Port of Long Beach and its sister port, the Port of Los Angeles, I like to note that both CBP and Census are aware that the data on the import side is significantly inaccurate, to the detriment of Long Beach, and one the export side marginally so.
Anchorage captured 20% of all computer chip imports in 2023. So far this year, that percentage has decreased to 13%.
Anchorage International Airport
Computer chip, cell phone imports drop
In the first five months of 2024, Anchorage International Airport’s trade fell to its lowest level since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic was in full swing, dropping to $20.94 billion, less than 1% above the 2020 total. The decline from the first five months of 2023 was 5.52%.
But looking at just imports, the total fell below the 2020 total for the first five months of the year. In fact, the total fell below any total dating back to at least 2016.
A good deal of this will have to do with the role Anchorage has traditionally played in global trade, which is a refueling stop — with imports clearing Customs — from Asia to the mainland United States.
With shifting trade patterns due to the trade war with China and with jets having longer ranges, expect Anchorage to play a less important role going forward, in my opinion.
Looking at the first five months of this year compared to the same period in the previous year, the big decreases were with the top import, computer chips, down 44.38%, and the fifth-ranked import, cell phones and related equipment, down 33.23%.
Computer chips remained the most valuable import through May but the cell phone category had ranked second for 2023. In the month of May alone, digital storage devices replaced computer chips as the most valuable import.
Trade with Taiwan took the biggest hit, with imports from there down 24.5% this year.
Despite the decline, diamonds remain the most valuable import into JFK this year, though the value of one of the top pharmaceutical categories, medicines in individual dosages, is gaining ground. A fair share of India diamonds, which have become a competitor in recent years, enter in Los Angeles.
JFK International Airport
Diamond imports down 22%
JFK is the only top 10-ranked port in this list of airports, seaports and border crossings off to the slowest start this year, the nation’s fourth most important. It has held the fourth spot through five months for the last four years.
After two years of topping $100 billion in two-way trade through the first five months of the year, JFK slipped to $98.67 billion this year, its trade off 4.83% from last year at this time.
Similarly to Anchorage International, its imports have fallen below the value of those in the year of the onset of the pandemic, 2020. JFK’s total of $50.49 billion is below any total through five months since 2019.
With a decrease of less than 5%, the losses with any particular country or particular, in this case, import, are not eye-popping. Imports of diamonds, the most valuable import into JFK, fell 21.97%. Three of the other top five imports gained in value and the last fell only slightly.
Imports from Israel, the No. 4-ranked trade partner for JFK and a large diamond importer, fell 17.39%.Imports from Germany also sharply, down 18.44%.
The Port of New York saw decreases in trade with each of its top four trade partners through May.
Port of New York
Top four trade partners’ imports down
The value of the Port of New York’s imports fell to its lowest level since the first five months of 2017, down 28.11% since just last year alone. Its total trade, buoyed by exports that increased 5.42%, was down only 4.52%.
Just looking at the top four trade partners, the losses are pretty sobering. No. 1 China — imports down 36.09% through May. No. 2 India, imports down 13.18%. No. 3 Germany, imports down 32.13%. No. 4 Netherlands, imports down 22.59%.
Cleveland International’s UPS trade
Top four trade partners’ imports down
International air cargo registered to Cleveland — suggesting Cleveland’s Hopkins International Airport — is almost certainly dominated by UPS international cargo that actually flies into Louisville, Ky. The U.S. Census Bureau intentionally cloaks that trade in secrecy as it does FedEx’s imports through Memphis, which are thrown into air cargo flying into New Orleans.
That “Cleveland air-cargo trade” is down 3.35% through May, when compared to the same five months of 2023. Exports are off slightly less, at 2.67%, and imports are down 4.25%.
Looking at the top trade partners, there’s quite a mix. Exports to No. 2 Canada fell 25.9%. Imports from No. 3 China rose 20.04%. Exports to No. 4 United Kingdom dropped 17.56%.
On the export side, No. 2-ranked computer chips fell 25.48% and No.4-ranked cell phones and related parts fell 22.55%. On the import side, No. 2 cell phones dropped 10.44%, No. 3 computer chips fell 31.19%, No. 4 computers jumped 56.38%, and No. 5 artificial knees and hips fell 30.05%.
Blaine, Wash. border crossing
Canada most important but trade fell elsewhere
Trade through Blaine, Wash., is down a mere 2.86%. In fact. trade at the final four on this list is down less than 5% each. While not a trifle, it isn’t much in the grand scheme of things.
Blaine, which conducts 90% of its trade with Canada, not surprisingly, is also the lowest-ranking port on this list, at No. 44, down two from last year. The only other port ranking above No. 40 is the other border crossing on this list, Champlain, N.Y.
Interestingly enough, its trade with Canada fell 2.12%, less than its trade with the world, which means it actually was leakage in the “other 10%,” which would include countries like No. 3 Germany, No. 6 South Korea and No. 9 Taiwan.
