Posted on June 11, 2025
Leaders at The Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach focus on infrastructure projects as trade threats disrupt cargo
So far this year, it’s been month after month of new records for the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach.
Even as each port finalizes their May cargo numbers – which preliminarily look to see a small but manageable drop – it’s already looking like the gravy train of Asian manufacturers and shippers rushing to get goods to the West Coast could screech to a halt this month. Mario Cordero, chief executive of the Port of Long Beach, said June was on track for a 15% decline in container movement, while Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka noted that L.A.’s terminals were seeing about five container ships a day right now, as opposed to the 10 or 12 it customarily processes in June.
“I certainly hope it doesn’t go any lower, because this is the bare minimum. We’re cutting it really close,” Seroka said. “Summer season, I think we’ve missed that this year. Now we’re looking straight into the eyes of back-to-school and Halloween. Back-to-school should be on the docks now, but based on volume coming in now, we’ll probably have less selection (on store shelves) and maybe higher prices.”
To blame largely is the sclerotic trade policies of President Donald Trump, who has upped the ante from his first stint in the White House in terms of levying punishing tariffs against many of the countries we import our goods from. In what seems to be a recurring pattern, Trump will announce his tariffs – with his usual provocative bravado – and then pause them as corresponding leaders signal that they’re willing to discuss a more favorable deal.
The result has spurred shippers, particularly those coming from China, to send as much as they can here before whatever tariffs actually materialize, as experts generally agree that tariffs are ultimately passed onto consumers and thus influence purchasing activity.
“It’s a schizophrenic policy,” said Jock O’Connell, a Sacramento-based international trade adviser with Fairfax-based Beacon Economics. “I look at it as an economist and say ‘Wow, what’s going on here?’ If I was an importer or exporter, I’d be tearing my hair out.”
Regardless of the trans-Pacific trade turmoil and how it may manifest, both ports remain locked in on another aspect of their operations: infrastructure improvements. Several projects remain ongoing, and others are expected to begin in the coming months. Leaders have additionally signaled that a potential dip in activity in the waterways may be an opportunity to accelerate some of this development.
Between the current fiscal year and the proposed budgets for the next one, the two ports are combined at about $1 billion in capital investment projects for 2025 and 2026.
Mario Cordero is chief executive of the Port of Long Beach. (Photo by Thomas Wasper)
During the Covid-19 pandemic, “we coined the phrase, ‘In crisis, the Port of Long Beach builds,’” Cordero recalled. “We have invested more in our capital improvement projects more than any other port in the country when it comes to infrastructure and we’re going to continue to prepare ourselves for the future.”
Is the wave of cargo cresting?
At face value, the ports have had a banner start to the year in terms of cargo container movement—a start that continues a strong wave from last year.
Through April, the San Pedro Bay port complex has posted 11 straight months of import container volumes above the five-year rolling average, according to research from Jones Lang LaSalle. The last time this was achieved was a 16-month stretch during the peak phases of the pandemic. West Coast ports – which, in JLL’s analysis, also included the ports of Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma – have also outpaced production from East Coast ports for three quarters, although that gap narrowed to a near even point.
Customarily, imports hit a lull here in the spring months before picking back up in the summer, in preparation for new school years and the winter holidays. Lunar New Year also delineates a seasonal change, as Chinese factories work extra ahead of the holiday to account for production pauses.
Not so this year, with multiple monthly and quarterly records set.
“This suggests that importers are still racing to bring merchandise in before the Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year holiday season to beat any anticipated tariffs that may or may not materialize,” O’Connell said. “Everybody’s guessing right now.”
In fact, those numbers could have been even higher. According to JLL’s research, shipments amounting to nearly 900,000 U.S.-bound containers across the Pacific were canceled in the first two weeks of April.
Consumers are likely observing the effects of this mad dash of imports. O’Connell noted that individual stores are increasingly keeping pallets of stock on storeroom floors thanks to full back storage and warehouses. And according to JLL, new industrial leasing in Southern California hit a four-year high of 25 million square feet in the first quarter, commensurate with the increase in imports here.
Having excess product here – particularly to this degree – is not always a benefit, O’Connell noted.
“It does congest the whole system, and in the end, it will probably result in a lot of waste,” he said. “Inventory costs are often ignored when we’re talking about the operational supply chain.”
Development: full steam ahead
Meanwhile, construction and engineering crews in the port complex remain busy.
At the Port of L.A., a plethora of terminal projects, rail expansion and roadway connections are underway. Construction work on the pedestrian bridge at the Wilmington Waterfront Promenade also began this year. Bidding will soon commence on the outer harbor cruise terminal, which will bolster the port’s significant operations as a cruise hub.
Relatedly, Royal Caribbean Line recently designated the Port of L.A. as the home port for Ovation of the Seas, a 4,900-passenger cruise liner with a weekly sailing schedule. “That was really great news for us,” Seroka noted.
This level of work is part and parcel of the ports’ strategy of managing continued significant investment over a period of time, as opposed to sporadic piecemeal work.
“Because of our strong financial policy over the last decade, we’re going to maintain our investments throughout the cycle,” Seroka said. “For us, we’re going to continue building infrastructure, investing in sustainable and digital programs and carry on with work in the waterfront because we’ve had these prudent financial policies.”
Eugene Seroka is executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. (Photo by Thomas Wasper)
Similarly, the Port of Long Beach plans to keep up its pace of work. The Pier B On-Dock Rail expansion project, which broke ground last year, continues with about $220 million in work earmarked for the current year. Work will begin this year to fill in a large slip bisecting a portion of Pier G, which will add about 19 acres of land to that terminal. That material will come in part from what is dredged in a channel deepening project in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
This year, the Port of L.A. and Port of Long Beach have $249 million and $368 million, respectfully, budgeted for capital improvements. Proposed budgets for the coming fiscal year, which remain subject to change, are currently at $231 million and $405 million.
“If we look out 10 years, we have a $3.2 billion forecasted capital improvement program,” at the Port of Long Beach, said Sean Gamette, managing director of engineering at the port.
Gamette, who is nearing retirement, noted that this level of work has for many years been in keeping with the port’s philosophy and is not borne of any projected trends of activity. Indeed, O’Connell from Beacon Economics pointed out that East and Gulf coast ports spent decades rapidly – at least in terms of trade infrastructure – expanding their capabilities once Asian traders entered the equation for them.
“They plowed ahead and spent enormous amounts of money over decades upgrading, dredging channels so they were able to attract the larger vessels coming into play,” O’Connell said.
Still, Gamette acknowledged that doesn’t mean opportunities don’t lie ahead.
“It’s certainly true that when or if there’s something that affects the economy that results in a downturn, we can capitalize on things,” he said. “If there’s some opportunities that comes up for redevelopment in an economic downturn, we would take advantage of it. If there was less cargo moving, we would obviously look to make improvements during a time like that.”
It will be important for the ports to find those opportunities amidst their regularly scheduled improvements – especially if they hope to reverse the narrowing gap between import levels on the competing coasts.
“It’s a cycle. This is not going to be a 10-year cycle – I don’t know if it’s even going to be a one-year cycle – but it’s going to be lean times ahead until these framework trade deals are made,” Seroka said, of tariffs and whatever agreements arise from them. “When we come out the other side, we’ll be ready to handle more cargo than ever before.”
