Posted on February 19, 2025
Turns out the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has South Carolina roots.
The late U.S. Sen. Ernest “Fritz” Hollings played a big role in establishing NOAA in 1970 and championed policies to safeguard the coast, ocean and its resources. Fast forward five and half decades, and the agency has a significant presence in the Palmetto State as an employer, data provider, fisheries regulator, weather forecaster and source of federal funding.
As President Donald Trump and the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk turn their attention to NOAA, some wonder what will become of the agency — and what’s at stake for South Carolina.
Trump denied having anything to do with Project 2025 on the campaign trail. Since taking office, Trump has surrounded himself with its architects, contributors and supporters, some of whom were members of Trump’s first administration. The 900-page document published by the Heritage Foundation contains policy recommendations for agencies across the federal government, including the Department of Commerce, which houses NOAA.
Trump has already implemented actions suggested by Project 2025, such as targeting the Department of Education and ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs. He also has frozen climate-related funding from Biden’s Infrastructure Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
Project 2025’s main qualms with NOAA include its multi-billion dollar budget and its climate research, which it said has driven climate change alarmism and poses harm to “future U.S. prosperity.” NOAA’s advocates say that sea-level rise and climate-related disasters are likely to do more harm to U.S. prosperity than scientific research.
Project 2025 recommends breaking up NOAA, deprioritizing climate research and privatizing the weather service — which could impact how residents access weather information and how cities prepare for long-term climate threats.
Some say South Carolinians have more to lose than gain if these policies are adopted.
Without NOAA’s work, “cities like Charleston lack crucial information they rely on to invest in public infrastructure projects that keep residents safe from future risks,” said Alys Campaigne, climate initiative leader at the Southern Environmental Law Center.
Climate research
NOAA’s climate data underpins how cities prepare for future challenges. The agency’s sea-level rise models show water levels around Charleston set to rise about a foot by 2050.
These projections are at the core of Charleston’s Water Plan and infrastructure projects such as the city’s seawall project, which assume higher seas and stronger storms will be part of the coast’s future.
NOAA tracks water levels throughout the state, including the Charleston Harbor and Edisto, Pee Dee, Santee and Waccamaw rivers. This information informs counties and residents when life-threatening flooding may occur and prompt evacuations.
The agency also supports a range of ongoing projects to help South Carolina adapt to climate change effects, including heat waves and flooding, and keep oceans healthy.
As of Feb. 11, NOAA had awarded more than $127 million to state agencies and organizations across South Carolina, according to USAspending. More than $26 million of these funds already have been distributed. Most of these projects span multiple years.
Communicating heat risks
One project spearheaded by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with the National Weather Service office in Columbia seeks to improve communicating heat risk to the public. The project focuses on historically underserved communities, said Kirstin Dow, professor of geography at USC and project lead.
“Heat risks here in the state are substantial because we have hot, humid summers and they’re getting hotter,” she said. Effective messaging about these dangers is crucial, especially for people with chronic health issues as well as those who are elderly or pregnant, she said. Project funding, which started in 2022, will end in March.
Forecasting hurricane intensity
A project through the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association aims to make forecasts of hurricane intensity more reliable. Hurricane forecasts depend on data collected at the surface and in the atmosphere, said Debra Hernandez, the association’s executive director. This tells forecasters where a storm might go, but it doesn’t tell them how intense it might be, she said.
The project deployed a network of torpedo-shaped gliders underwater during hurricane season to collect water temperature and salinity levels at different depths. Hurricanes feed off heat and churn the water column. If deeper water is warm, it could intensify a hurricane.
A Category 1 storm could quickly become a Category 4 storm, giving the region insufficient time to prepare or evacuate, Hernandez said.
“Lives are at risk if hurricanes intensify very quickly when they’re close to shore,” she said.
This project, as well as the gliders, are funded by NOAA.
Coastal, community resilience
The state’s Sea Grant Consortium is a partnership between NOAA, universities and state agencies. The consortium relies heavily on NOAA funding to support projects across the state, said Susan Lovelace, the consortium’s executive director.
“Sea Grant projects are all very applied, meaning they fund projects that result in real-world applications or solutions to problems,” said Andrew Tweel, marine scientist at the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.
One of this year’s consortium-funded projects looks at how small businesses, especially those owned by women and people of color, can adapt to climate stressors like hurricanes, heat waves, sunny-day flooding and rain bombs.
Small businesses are the backbone of South Carolina’s economy, said Scott Curtis, director of The Citadel’s Near Center for Climate Studies and project lead.
“For the economic engine and health of the state, it’s good for small businesses to recognize any kind of vulnerabilities that they might have related to climate and think about what they can do to make themselves more successful,” Curtis said.
Another project supported by consortium funding is researching marsh resilience to sea level rise. Findings from the project, led by the state’s DNR, could result in more successful marsh restoration projects in the future.
“There’s a knowledge gap related to how salt marshes will respond to sea level rise,” said Tweel, the project’s lead. Findings from this project will give scientists a better sense of which marshes are likely to be resilient and which might be in trouble.
The consortium is also supporting a different project exploring how sinking marshes could be restored using a technique called thin-layer sediment placement. The Sustainability Institute is leading marsh restoration projects in historically underserved communities along the coast, including Rosemont in Charleston’s Neck Area, Bucksport in Horry County, Ashleyville in West Ashley and Battery Island located at the edge of James Island.
Other NOAA-funded projects through the consortium include the Kids Teaching Flood Resilience program, which teaches students how to stay safe in a hurricane, efforts to clean up marine debris in Gullah Geechee communities and research on coastal and river flooding in Gullah communities such as Sandy Island in Georgetown County and St. Helena Island in Beaufort County.
NOAA also partners with organizations and state agencies on projects. The state’s Office of Resilience is working with NOAA to get better land cover data for all of South Carolina, spokesperson Hope Warren said.
The projects supported by NOAA, directly and indirectly, are wide-ranging, Campaigne said.
“Destabilizing or defunding NOAA’s public research to target where coastal protections are needed drives up cost and risk and puts the burden on states and local communities,” she said.
A ‘public good’
Campaigne sees planning for climate change and extreme weather as a matter of public safety. Climate research serves as the foundation for weather forecasting and warnings. Separating the two would weaken the public warning system, she said.
The only way meteorologists and emergency management officials can continue providing good weather forecasts and quick responses to extreme weather is through the collection of reliable climate data, she said.
Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions — whether it’s sunny or rainy, hot or cold in a place in a given hour or on a given day. Climate refers to the long-term averages of weather — how hot or cold, rainy or sunny that place is at different times of the year.
Project 2025 doesn’t recommend getting rid of the weather service, but it does recommend limiting it and favoring private companies such as AccuWeather instead. This isn’t the first time this has come up. The National Weather Services Duties Act was introduced in 2005 by then- U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. This legislation proposed limiting the type of weather information the NWS could distribute to avoid competition with private weather companies. It was heavily criticized.
Commercializing the weather service would change how people in South Carolina access weather information and who gets access, Campaigne said. If communities in South Carolina have different levels of access to weather information based on what they can pay, it could lead to inconsistencies and confusion, limit emergency response and put lower-income, lower-population communities at risk, especially if they’re prone to hazards like hurricanes, she said.
“Weather prediction is an incredible public good that we should be proud of and protect and not put behind a paywall,” Campaigne said.
AccuWeather’s CEO Steven Smith published a statement in July 2024 rejecting Project 2025’s recommendations. Both Campaigne and Smith advocated for the multi-sector approach to weather forecasting — an approach that has “saved countless lives” and saved the economy billions, Smith said.
“There’s definitely a place for private sector involvement and innovation and sharing information and refining our data collection,” Campaigne said.
But this shouldn’t come at the expense of public weather information, she said.
