Posted on March 11, 2026
By Sam Chambers
The ongoing war between Iran and the US/Israeli coalition has pushed bunker prices into record territory
Ship&Bunker reports the average global price for standard IFO380 heavy bunker fuel reached $841.50 a ton yesterday, eclipsing the previous record of $760. By comparison, the average price for the fuel was $456 last month. In Singapore, the world’s preeminent bunkering hub, the price stood at a staggering $1,073 per ton yesterday, with shipping companies likely relieved to see the price of crude finally showing signs of falling in early trading this morning.
“Bunkers are becoming increasingly scarce, and expensive,” broker Braemar noted in a new report, pointing out that at least a fifth of the world’s HSFO exports is trapped in the Middle East.
Greek maritime analytics firm Signal reports that major bunkering hubs, including Singapore, Colombo, and ports in India, have seen increased demand as vessels adjust fuelling strategies. In Europe, the Northwest European bunkering region centred on Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Amsterdam has also experienced tighter supply conditions and higher fuel premiums, while Mediterranean ports such as Gibraltar have also seen increased activity.
Discussing Iran, a spokesperson for the International Bunker Industry Association (IBIA) told Splash today: “Given the volatility and the unprecedented developments in the region, we, as with the rest of the world, hope to see a de‑escalation as soon as possible.”
“Shipping should certainly be alert, but not panicked,” said Gus Majed, CEO of energy price risk specialist Paratus.
The energy stress as a fallout from the ongoing war in the Middle East is clearly visible in refining economics, Majed pointed out.
“Diesel cracks near $50 per barrel are one of the clearest signals that the global system is scrambling for distillate molecules,” he said, adding: “Marine fuels sit in that same distillate pool, so bunker prices react very quickly when logistics tighten and freight costs surge.”
For shipping specifically, Majed argued the immediate issue is price volatility rather than outright physical shortage.
“Major bunkering hubs such as Singapore remain structurally well supplied, but cargoes are becoming significantly more expensive and harder to reposition as freight, insurance and logistics costs rise across the system,” Majed said. “The longer the disruption persists, the more the market shifts toward a physical shortage framework where the only real balancing mechanism becomes demand destruction through materially higher prices.”
Pavlos Fakinos, a freight market analyst at Greece’s Allied Shipbroking, agreed with Majed, telling Splash: “The immediate concern is not that bunkers become unavailable, but that supply becomes less predictable and more expensive. For owners, this means planning earlier, bunkering more carefully, and accepting higher operating costs to reduce exposure to the most affected areas.”
Meanwhile, the architect of the war, US president Donald Trump, is attempting to assuage fears over the spiralling price of oil, urging tankers to get moving in the Middle East, while hinting he’s willing to let Russia export more to fill the gap.
“These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News over the weekend, discussing the current tanker paralysis seen on either side of the Strait of Hormuz. “There’s nothing to be afraid of… they have no navy, we sunk all their ships,” he claimed.
Trump also said on Monday that he plans to waive more sanctions against Russia to tackle rising oil prices.
France, meanwhile, is deploying about a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the Mediterranean, Red Sea and potentially the Strait of Hormuz as part of defensive support to allies threatened by the conflict in the Middle East.
French president Emmanuel Macron has said France and its allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the war ends.
Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, Macron said the “purely escort mission” must be prepared by both European and non-European countries.
For international shipping – and the global economy as a whole – the focus is now on how long this war will last.
“For now, the key variable is duration,” analysts at Greek broker Xclusiv stated in a new report. “Shipping history offers sharply contrasting precedents: the 1967 closure of the Suez Canal triggered a multi-year tanker boom, while the 1973 oil crisis ultimately destroyed demand. If the Hormuz disruption proves temporary, the immediate effect could be strongly supportive for tanker earnings and asset values. But if the conflict evolves into a prolonged regional war, the risk shifts from supply shock to macroeconomic damage. In shipping, the difference between those two outcomes is the difference between a freight windfall and a demand collapse.”
