Posted on December 10, 2025
Global trade is on track to surpass $35 trillion for the first time in 2025, marking a 7% increase over 2024 despite mounting geopolitical tensions and rising costs that have begun to slow momentum heading into the new year, according to UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) final Global Trade Update of 2025.
The maritime sector has been a key driver of this growth, with seaborne goods trade accounting for approximately $1.5 trillion of the $2.2 trillion increase, while services trade contributed roughly $750 billion, expanding by nearly 9%. However, UNCTAD expects growth to decelerate in the fourth quarter to just 0.5% for goods and 2% for services, signaling headwinds ahead.
East Asia emerged as the strongest regional performer, with exports surging 9% over the past four quarters and intra-regional trade climbing 10%. Africa also demonstrated robust import growth at 10% over the same period, with exports expanding 6%. These gains underscore a broader trend: South-South trade between developing economies outpaced the global average with 8% growth, reflecting growing resilience across emerging markets.
North America and Europe showed more modest expansion, with North American exports rising 2% over the past four quarters despite a 3% decline in the third quarter. European exports grew 6% annually but slowed to 2% in the most recent quarter.
Manufacturing remained the primary engine of global trade growth, expanding 10% over the past four quarters, with electronics leading the charge at 14% growth driven by AI-related demand. Agricultural trade also performed strongly, rising 8% in the third quarter with significant gains in cereals, fruits, vegetables, and oilseeds.
The automotive sector presented a contrasting picture, with trade declining 4% over the past year. The one bright spot was hybrid vehicles, which surged 22%, while combustion-engine vehicle trade fell 13% and electric vehicles dropped 5%. In commodities, iron and steel saw dramatic growth of 40% since the third quarter of 2024, though overall natural-resource trade remained subdued due to lower fuel prices.
Trade imbalances continue to present challenges for the maritime industry. China’s goods surplus narrowed in the third quarter but remained approximately $30 billion higher than the same period in 2024. The United States saw its trade deficit improve compared to earlier in 2025.
UNCTAD points out that geopolitical fragmentation is actively reshaping shipping patterns. Both friend-shoring and near-shoring indicators strengthened in the third quarter, reversing earlier declines and approaching 2021 levels. Trade concentration among major economies also increased, indicating that a larger share of global cargo is flowing through a smaller group of key players.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD warns that momentum is expected to weaken. Slower global growth, mounting debt pressures, higher trade costs, and continued uncertainty are likely to weigh on maritime trade flows. While developing economies have shown resilience, debt pressures continue to constrain many emerging markets.
The shift from price-driven to volume-driven growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that underlying demand remains solid even as commodity price volatility moderates. For vessel operators and port facilities, this transition indicates sustained cargo volumes despite margin pressures from declining rates.
