Posted on March 10, 2025
The US could have 7 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 – potentially more – but the actual build out will depend heavily on what the Trump administration does next, following the President’s recent executive order
So say analysts at Aegir Insights in a recent report on the American market, which suggests that – based on the current progress and state of more mature projects – the US market could, potentially, have up to 10 GW of capacity installed by 2030.
However, as Aegir Insights regional lead US Laura Fecova told OWJ, “This is highly dependent on future action by the Trump administration, as well as availability of the supply chain.” Hence Aegir Insights’ lower estimate of capacity likely to be installed by the end of the decade.
Aegir Insights market analyst Réka Kékesi said offshore wind projects totalling 11.1 GW secured approval for their construction and operation plan (COP) and had a route to market before Mr Trump took office. She said these projects are expected to move forward towards construction and completion. “However,” she explained, “around 23 GW of active projects are currently at risk due to the lack of COP approvals or a route to market.
“Federal permit approvals have been paused and are undergoing review since President Trump’s executive order,” she told OWJ. “We do not foresee any new COP approvals under the Trump administration, putting projects with an approved COP in a better position to move forward with development than those that only have a power purchase agreement (PPA).”
As Ms Fecova noted, state offtake solicitations can continue and some are planned, but states and developers are struggling to navigate an uncertain environment, and this raises questions about whether they are likely to be successful.
“The industry is already seeing the first signals of potential future struggles,” she said, noting the state of New Jersey cancelled its fourth solicitation, Connecticut ‘took a pass’ on a recent offshore wind capacity procurement, and the rest of the capacity awarded as part of tri-state auctions at the end of 2024 lacks signed contracts.
“New York is expected to publish the results of its fifth solicitation, but given the recent increase in prices for offtake contracts it remains to be seen whether the state will procure capacity or choose other sources of renewable energy,” Ms Fecova said.
Laura Fecova: “The current outlook won’t encourage investment and the US will have to compete with the rest of the world for supply chain capacity”
Of the developers engaged in the US market, some are pressing ahead with projects but others have withdrawn. “Several developers have paused or completely halted development plans because of the uncertainty and risk imposed by the Trump administration’s actions, putting long-term growth in the US market at risk,” Ms Kékesi told OWJ.
“Others have recognised impairments on their projects, partly due to long development timelines, which could indicate they intend to hold on to assets and participate in future developments.
“Although this slowdown will stall development, projects already under construction or nearing construction are moving forward, ensuring some capacity will come online over the next four years,” she said. “Until the end of the Trump administration, the expansion of offshore wind in the US will be driven by these projects. Beyond that, only those with approved COPs and secured PPAs are likely to advance.”
Then there is the financial risk the President’s executive orders have brought about. “Developers need to address the financial risk they face as funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) dry up,” she said. “This also increases financial uncertainty,” she told OWJ, as do the potential effect of tariffs, which will also increase costs. For the time being, Ms Kékesi said, the overall financial impact isn’t clear, but losing access to the ITC could adversely affect project viability, making contracts harder to fulfil, potentially leading to cancellations or renegotiations.
Last but not least, said Ms Fecova, supply chain disruption is likely to adversely affect the US market. “The US supply chain and port infrastructure aren’t mature yet, with build-out closely tied to project success.
“The current outlook won’t encourage further investment, and the US has already seen facilities that were due to be built cancelled. If the political leadership in the US changes in the future, the dearth of investment in the supply chain will slow down the ability to regain momentum. As a result, the US will continue competing with the rest of the world for supply chain capacity, potentially delaying the build-out of offshore wind projects.”
