Posted on October 13, 2021
If a major flood happened tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of homes, commercial buildings, roads and critical infrastructure across New England are at risk of damage, according to a new report by the First Street Foundation. And the dangers are only expected to grow over the next 30 years.
First Street’s “Infrastructure on the Brink” report, released Oct. 11, is thought to be the first ever nationwide assessment of flooding vulnerability. The report looks at how flooding impacts society as a whole, gauging not only risk for homes and businesses, but also roads and critical infrastructure, like hospitals and power plants, and social infrastructure, like schools and churches.
The report analyzes “operational risk,” which First Street defines as when a structure is flooded to the point where it can no longer function as intended or becomes unsafe.
Matthew Eby, executive director of the First Street Foundation, said the numbers “just kind of blew us away.” According to the report, 25% of the nation’s critical infrastructure is currently at risk of becoming inoperable because of flooding.
Massachusetts’ Suffolk County – comprised of Boston, Chelsea, Revere and Winthrop – made First Street’s national list of the top 20 counties expected to see the largest increase in flood risk over the next 30 years.
“Our data really provides the baseline of that risk screening so you can understand as a community where risk is,” said Eby. “Is it in our roads, homes, or critical infrastructure? And then you have to decide what’s acceptable. Is it acceptable that Suffolk County has (more than) 18,000 properties that have a 1 in 4 chance of flooding over the next 30 years?”
The risks extend all across New England.
In coastal Hull, Massachusetts, for example, 68.6% of its residential properties are at risk of water reaching their buildings and 67.1% of the town’s roads are at risk of becoming impassable, according to the report. Both Providence and Pawtucket, Rhode Island have more than 30% of roads possibly endangered.
In Gardiner, Maine, located on the Kennebec River, 100% of the town’s critical infrastructure, like utilities and emergency services, is in danger of becoming non-functional.
First Street’s new data will now be embedded within property listings on realtor.com, so prospective buyers have flood risk information at their fingertips when considering a property. Property owners can also look up their specific addresses on First Street’s https://www.floodfactor.com/.
“I think people are realizing we’re playing Russian roulette with nature, and the consequences of inaction are severe,” said Bill Golden, a former Massachusetts state senator and executive director of the National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure. Golden is currently leading a working group looking to create a regional flood defense system for Boston Harbor.
Climate change, rainfall making flooding more severe in New England
First Street’s new report comes one month after flooding caused by Hurricane Ida killed more than 40 people in four Northeastern states and hammered infrastructure.
New York City’s subway system was deluged by flooding, and several people died in flooded basement apartments. A Connecticut state trooper was killed when his vehicle was swept away in floodwaters. In Portsmouth, Rhode Island, a road crumbled and collapsed, and backyards and roads were flooded in Central Massachusetts, particularly along the Blackstone River in Northbridge.
Ida was a stark example of how climate change is making rain fall faster and heavier in shorter periods of time.
“It has a lot to do with the climatology and physics behind tropical cyclones,” said Jeremy Porter, head of research and development at First Street. “Hurricanes and tropical storms are coming in further north now because the atmosphere temperatures are warming. We’re seeing them reach northern latitudes at a stronger magnitude than they have in the past.”
For Boston Harbor, Golden said, the time for action is now, especially after seeing what happened to New York City’s infrastructure during Hurricane Ida. Golden – who had a hand in shaping the Environmental Protection Agency – and his working group are proposing what they call a “layered defense,” consisting of seawalls on the perimeter of Boston Harbor to protect residential and commercial areas from sea level rise, combined with a regional seagate system that would close at the last low tide before a major storm.
“Storm surge kills, and its destructive capability makes the option of doing nothing more expensive,” Golden said.
First Street categorizes Suffolk County’s critical infrastructure risk as “severe” – more than 67% is currently at risk, including police and fire stations, wastewater treatment plants and Superfund sites.
Nationally, according to First Street, over the next 30 years flood risk to residential properties is expected to increase by 10%.
What do First Street’s numbers say about New England’s flood risk?
Here are the numbers for each state from First Street’s recent report:
Massachusetts
162,798 residential properties, 12,918 miles of roads, 14,644 commercial properties, 698 infrastructure facilities, and 1,780 social facilities are threatened by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Hull, Adams, Lawrence, Provincetown, North Adams, Salisbury, Athol, Saugus, East Sandwich and West Springfield
Rhode Island
22,253 residential properties, 1,618 miles of roads, 2,876 commercial properties, 120 infrastructure facilities, and 250 social facilities are threatened by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Providence, Woonsocket, Newport, Pawtucket, Westerly, Wakefield-Peacedale, Warwick, East Providence, Cranston and Newport East
New Hampshire
38,857 residential properties, 7,917 miles of roads, 3,529 commercial properties, 230 infrastructure facilities, and 298 social facilities are threatened by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Franklin, Lebanon, Keene, Littleton, Milford, Laconia, Berlin, Portsmouth, Claremont and Somersworth
Maine
23,544 residential properties, 11,618 miles of roads, 1,989 commercial properties, 244 infrastructure facilities, and 292 social facilities threatened by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Gardiner, Brewer, Skowhegan, Old Town, Auburn, Bath, Yarmouth, Bangor, Lewiston and Rockland
Vermont
26,565 residential properties, 7,030 miles of roads, 3,613 commercial properties, 273 infrastructure facilities, and 408 social facilities threatened by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Bennington, Barre, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Brattleboro, Essex Junction, St. Albans, Burlington, Rutland and South Burlington
Connecticut
99,001 residential properties, 8,487 miles of roads, 10,038 commercial properties, 407 infrastructure facilities, and 846 social facilities endangered by flooding
Top 10 communities with greatest operational risk: Cos Cob, Putnam, Riverside, Branford Center, Westport, Greenwich, Naugatuck, Torrington, Norwalk and Hartford.
