Posted on February 21, 2024
Cargo Growth Moderates: Cargo at China’s eight major seaports rose by 4% yoy in 4Q23 after gaining 5% in 3Q23. Subdued volume growth at ports in Shenzhen and Xiamen indicated weakness in external demand from ASEAN, Europe and the US. Containers Rise Despite Declining Exports: Throughput at the eight major container ports increased 6% yoy in 4Q23. Fitch Ratings believes the growth was due to the addition of 20 container shipping lines and new container capacity in early 2023 at Qingdao Port, a major trade partner of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the ramp-up of multimodal transport at Ningbo-Zhoushan port, and a 12% increase in transported containers via the China-Europe Railway. Export Decline Eases: China’s export value fell 3% yoy in 4Q23, slowing from the 11% drop in 3Q23. Exports to ASEAN and the EU fell by 9.3% and 9.7% in 4Q23, respectively, after the 17.0% and 17.5% drop in 3Q23. The decline in exports to the US also eased to 3% in 4Q23 from 14.3% in 3Q23. The decline in ASEAN, EU and US demand was tempered by resilient exports to Russia, which jumped by 24% in 4Q23. Exports to ASEAN (15.9% of total) continued to lead the US (14.8%) and EU (13.7%) in 4Q23.
