Posted on September 30, 2024
2024 is now the hottest year on record, and it’s not just a statistic; it’s a wake-up call. With rapidly rising temperatures, cities, industries and businesses around the world are being pushed into an era where extreme heat is a defining challenge of our time.
Today, we’re witnessing heat waves that stretch beyond summer months, wildfires that devastate communities, and droughts that cripple economies. Once anomalies, these have become a regular feature of life in cities and communities worldwide. What was once considered a 1-in-100-year event, like the 2003 heatwave in Southern Europe, is becoming more frequent. By 2040, such devastating heat events could occur every other year1, forcing cities and governments to rethink resilience strategies and infrastructure at a fundamental level.
Cites are widely seen as central to the climate crisis with urban areas seen as islands that trap and radiate heat. And they also now serving as home to more than half the world’s population. Research released in September 2024 shows that nearly two-thirds of the global public feel personally affected by climate change experience it through extreme heat2. By the turn of the century, heatwaves could affect 75% of the global population3, with economic losses reaching $23 trillion by 20504. But this is not just about projections. It’s about the human experience – a human crisis, driven primarily by human-induced climate change5.
The heat is on. And the need for proactive planning and resilient infrastructure is more urgent than ever. Is your city or business prepared for this increasingly hotter world?
The Future is Here – Hotter Days Ahead
Extreme heat is not a distant issue; we see and feel its impact in our everyday lives as temperatures continue to rise. From intensified turbulence and infrastructure breaks – like this summer when extreme heat caused the metal of New York’s Third Avenue Bridge to expand, leaving it stuck open for hours,6 – to its effects on worker productivity and the health of our communities. Globally, it’s the deadliest weather-related hazard, responsible for 489,000 deaths per year since 20007, about 30 times more than tropical cyclones and hurricanes8.
Communities that were once resilient to heat are now more vulnerable than ever to its impacts. People at elevated health risk from extreme heat exposure fall into three categories: those with increased exposure, increased biological sensitivity, and/or those who face high socioeconomic burdens. In the U.S., almost one in four people fall into these categories9, which include emergency responders, athletes, workers without sufficient cooling, those experiencing homelessness, children and adults over 65, pregnant women, and individuals with chronic health conditions.
This further compounds for people with socioeconomic burdens such as low income or living in a low resource community, as they are often least equipped financially and infrastructurally to cope with heat increases. And as temperatures rise and extreme heat events increase in frequency and intensity, even the healthiest of populations will face risk of direct heat related illness. It will impact everyone.
Urban environments are at the epicenter, amplifying this crisis.
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect causes cities to be significantly hotter than surrounding and rural areas, as heat-absorbing surfaces like pavement and buildings trap and radiate warmth, a phenomenon that intensifies during heatwaves. Extreme heat events can also increase the amount of heat dispersion from buildings to the urban environment by up to 20%, largely in the form of heat waste from air conditioning 11. This makes it critical for urban planners, real estate developers and governments to consider energy efficient and green infrastructure solutions supported by holistic, long-term capital planning and strategies.
Heating Up: Supply Chains and Productivity
Beyond its impact on communities, extreme heat will increasingly disrupt integrated global supply chains and economies. While physical climate hazards like floods, wildfires and sea level rise pose significant risks to business operations, heat stress threatens a large portion of assets across all sectors globally. A recent Moody’s ESG solutions report identified utilities and manufacturing as most at risk, followed closely by transportation and warehousing, which face high exposure to this very real, growing challenge12.
Extreme heat resilience in action: In Australia, Arcadis is using modeling tools to assess how heat affects road longevity and integrate this data into the early stages of infrastructure design. This analyzes the albedo effect, which measures how much heat is reflected by impervious surfaces like roofs and roads, and can be a key factor in creating more resilient infrastructure to withstand the effects of rising temperatures.
Extreme heat is rapidly becoming one of the most dangerous threats to both human health and economic stability.
While the economic cost of inaction is staggering, loss of productivity directly relates to human health and wellbeing. The risk of extreme heat to outdoor workers, such as mail carriers, delivery drivers, agricultural workers, and informal workers, particularly those in developing economies, as well as those working in environments without air conditioning, including online retail warehouses, commercial kitchens, and power plants is significant. Lost worktime often means lost wages which increases social vulnerability.
Taking action on extreme heat is a solution that promotes both economic and health equity while addressing the climate crisis. At Arcadis, we recognize this and are focused on providing leading innovative strategies to address extreme heat now and in the future. With deep knowledge across multiple sectors, we focus on guiding decision making to ensure our clients and communities adapt and thrive as our environments heat up.
Extreme heat resilience in action: Cities like Washington D.C. are taking the lead with ‘cool corridors’ aimed at providing shaded walkways and cooling zones for vulnerable populations. These corridors serve those most at risk, such as the elderly and those without access to air conditioning, but they also provide a blueprint for cities around the world to follow.
Under the Canopy of Shade – The Power of Passive Cooling and Nature Based Solutions
As we adapt to this new climate reality, air conditioning can save lives. And, while it currently accounts for 7% of the world’s electricity, and nearly 20% of the electricity used in buildings globally16, many homes in hot countries have yet to install their first air conditioner. Further, sales of lifesaving AC units expected to triple globally by 205017.
But it’s a double-edged solution. 2022 estimates indicate that air conditioners and their refrigerants contributed to 3.7% of total GHG emissions18. Staying cool is making it hotter.
Adaptation cannot rely on energy-intensive mechanical cooling alone. In communities where air conditioning is not an affordable or reliable option extreme heat is even more deadly. Passive cooling, the process and techniques to cool spaces without the use of energy, has the potential to reduce load on air conditioning by as much as 80%19 and can be key to surviving extreme heat both indoors and out.
Passive cooling solutions often fall under the category of nature-based solutions like blue and green infrastructure. Rain gardens, bioswales, and water features provide natural cooling while enhancing biodiversity and managing stormwater, improving the build environment to directly provide benefits to residents.
Arcadis has also been working with cities like The Hague in the Netherlands to transform public spaces, such as libraries, into cooling centers that also serve as resilience hubs. These spaces are more than just shelters from the heat; they foster community resilience during extreme weather events.
Technological innovation is also key. Tools like Tygron, a mapping software used by Arcadis, create digital twins of cities, enabling planners to identify heat hotspots and design targeted interventions. AI-driven tools continue to advance rapidly and can be effective in predictability and decision-making, such as Google’s heat exposure mapping that can help cities model the effects of cool roofs and tree canopies on thermal comfort.
Preparing for a Hotter Future – Where Can You Start?
While we cannot reverse the global rise in temperatures, we can mitigate its impact with proactive, integrated, and innovative strategies. Extreme heat is a global crisis that demands a coordinated response. Governments, businesses, and communities must come together to implement adaptive measures that will not only protect populations but also safeguard economies and critical infrastructure.
#1 It’s everyone’s responsibility
Education on extreme heat risks and preparedness should be embedded into school curricula, community engagement activities, and organizational and workforce training. This should include practical advice on how to cope during heatwaves, particularly in communities most affected by rising temperatures. Teaching young people and community leaders about climate resilience can build the foundation for future preparedness.
#2 Consider the role of Chief Heat Officers (CHOs)
More cities can follow the example of Miami, in the U.S. and Freetown, in Sierra Leone, which have appointed CHOs to focus on heat mitigation strategies and advocate for long-term heat resilience as a priority. These roles extend beyond just installing cooling systems – they coordinate across all departments in a municipality to embed heat resilience into every aspect of city planning, from community outreach to infrastructural development.
#3 Invest in resilience
Both public and private sectors must increase investment in green and blue infrastructure, sustainable cooling systems, and comprehensive heat adaptation strategies. Cities need to rethink traditional infrastructure projects and prioritize designs that incorporate passive cooling strategies, water management, and biodiversity. Public and private entities should collaborate to ensure that this investment scales up quickly and effectively, ensuring that heat adaptation keeps pace with the speed at which temperatures are rising.
In the US, our team is working closely with the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on an Extreme Heat Playbook that considers holistic strategies to address extreme heat in cities.
#4 Make heat resilience part of your organizational strategy
Businesses need to adopt a forward-looking approach to heat resilience by incorporating it into health and safety protocols, workforce wellbeing strategies, and long-term operational planning. This is especially true for sectors like construction, agriculture, and transportation, where site work is common and risks are high. Proactive worker protection measures can mean reduced productivity losses and health-related incidents.
#5 Leverage innovation for better predictability and preparedness
Predictive tools powered by AI and advanced data analytics can help governments and businesses better prepare for future heatwaves, and also better forecast vulnerabilities to deploy resources more efficiently. For example, AI-driven tools can simulate the impact of tree canopies or cool roofs on urban thermal comfort, enabling planners to make more informed decisions about where to invest in green infrastructure. For businesses, predictive models can identify how heat will impact supply chains and workforce productivity, allowing for more proactive contingency planning.
The Heat Will Continue – But So Can Our Innovation
As the biggest contributors to its worst effect, is within our power, as cities, businesses and industries, to lessen the impacts of heat. A combination of innovative technologies, data-driven strategies, and community-driven solutions can ensure that our cities remain livable and resilient in the face of this challenge.
The tools, technology, and strategies are at our fingertips. The choice we face is clear: we can either act now to create a future where heat adaptation is embedded into every aspect of urban living, or we can continue to pay the price as temperatures continue to rise. Now is the time to make decisions that will ensure resilience and prosperity for future generations.
Climate Change: The Urgent Crossroad Shaping Our Future
Discover how we can redefine climate solutions with bold actions in the first article of our Future of Climate series
